Nasdaq Private Market’s State of the Private Market: 2025 report shows private company valuations beginning to recover, liquidity programs surging, and private company performance stabilizing relative to public benchmarks following two years of turbulence.
In 2024, total proceeds raised through secondary tender offers surpassed venture-backed IPO volume. Over that same period, the number of private company auction programs rose 83% year-over-year, underscoring how critical these programs have become in providing liquidity to employees and early investors
Public markets began the year with high levels of volatility. After a 23% gain in the S&P500 during 2024, the index climbed another 3% in January before falling 2% in February. By late February, the S&P500 had fallen 8% from its peak and the Nasdaq100 had dropped 11%. Private markets proved steadier. The Nasdaq Private Market Tracker reported that private company shares fell only about 1% during that same period
In terms of annual returns, private shares advanced 3% in 2024 following an 11% decline in 2023. That performance lagged the 29% rise in the Nasdaq composite and 24% in the S&P500 but represented a meaningful improvement from the prior year’s losses. Sector level performance within the private market was uneven. The mean subsector return was 16%, with the artificial intelligence ecosystem far outpacing peers with a 124% gain. Among the largest companies trading on the NPM platform, Coreweave rose 294%, Ripple Labs climbed 183%, and Figma increased 133%.
The IPO market, by contrast, has remained subdued. Venture-backed startups raised approximately $5.2 billion through IPOs in 2024, down from $7.9 billion in 2023 and roughly half the levels seen in 2021. Boards and investors remain hesitant to take companies public without clear evidence that valuations can exceed prior highs. With many firms flush with capital from 2020 and 2021 fundraising rounds, the urgency to pursue IPOs is limited.
Tender programs highlight both recovery and dispersion. In Q4 2024, 24% of secondary share volume priced above the last preferred round, while 36% priced below. Median transaction size declined to $24 million in 2024 compared to $39 million in 2023. Participation rates also fell, with current employee participation dropping to 59% from 77% the year before, while ex-employee participation slipped to 58% from 66%. Yet demand remained strong. The median subscription rate, which measures the portion of investor demand filled, rose to 92% in 2024 from 83% a year earlier. Looking ahead, the report points to reasons for optimism. The average valuation of venture-backed private companies fell more than 50% from peak to trough as interest rates rose between 2021 and 2024, but this rebasing appears to be in its later stages. With the ten-year US Treasury yield easing from 4.7% at the end of 2024 to about 4.3% early in 2025, funding conditions are more supportive. Meanwhile, many of the most compelling investment themes of the decade, from artificial intelligence and data centers to defense and space, are concentrated in the private market.